AI Free
. . . Until it Doesn't - Pt I
"Gradually and then Suddenly"
Throughout history there have been many powerful civilizations and empires.
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| Hanging Gardens Anyone? |
Different times, different parts of the world
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| Okay so the world didn't end in 2012 - sue me! |
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| Pax Romana They all shared one thing however . . . |
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| Rule Britannia |
I have been fascinated with history for a long time. In fact, my minor in college was world history. I was going to major in it but I found something even more worthless - political science. (My GPA was too low for Basket Weaving.) I actually started this post years ago but just never quite got around to finishing it. Given current conditions here and elsewhere in the world I thought, "Hey, I owe this to you!"
Just a cursory look at history tells us that virtually every important empire or society throughout history rose and then fell. Turns out that finding out "why" is pretty interesting - especially if you're a nerd. It also turns out that it needs two parts so here's Part One.I hope you find at least a few interesting tidbits in here.
"Will it Go Round in Circles?" (Compliments to Billy Preston)
According to experts, the average age of the great civilizations, especially in the last 1000 years or so, is something like 200-250 years - give or take. As you might guess, there are several theories for why this occurs but they are all very similar. Generally, they look like this version by an old Scottish Professor, Alexander Tytler:
There are various names for, and numbers of, the steps but in a sense they all follow a similar birth-to-death cycle - not unlike like us humans? Hmmm
Toward the end of that cycle, however, the same things tend push them over the edge. Historian and author Jared Diamond in his excellent book, Collapse, generally sums up most of them quite well. He suggests the end is brought on by a combination of some or all these issues:
"Environmental
Degradation, Economic Collapse, Political Instability & Corruption, Social
Unrest & Class Conflict, Military Defeat & Invasions, Disease &
Pandemics, Technological Stagnation, Cultural & Ideological Decay, Climate
Change/Natural Disasters, Overexpansion."
Pretty easy see why they might do it.
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| "Okay, guys, now that we've used up all the rocks and trees, who's up for moving to a new island? |
Another theory that may apply specifically to countries like ours . . . .
Modern Democracy (ruh roh)
Good old professor Tytler again, in the 1700's, had this to say about democracies:
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship."
Again, hmmm . . .
And there is this from a Founding Father. . .
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| I bet John was really a party pooper at the Constitution Convention |
A Final Theory . . .
It is slightly different but it essentially explains or incorporates most of the others and (because of my Myers-Briggs type) it's my favorite.
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| Modern life |
It is true that in almost every way our lives are demonstrably easier. The comfortable homes, fast transportation, instant communication – all the modern conveniences of our lives. Yet most of us are still stressed out a lot of the time. Well, until you retire and even then you worry about running out of money before you keel over. (Assuming, I guess, you have retirement money to run out of now since most people don't have pensions.)
Modern life is more difficult than most people appreciate. You know, commuting - or working from home - driving kids around to various “important” events; many of us on call for work any time of day and most of us work at the whim of a company that with one "right sizing" email can send anyone from middle class to stone age in a matter of minutes. (Okay, maybe stone age is an exaggeration but don't ask some civil servants about that today.) Also, even with all the time-saving tools of modern life we seem to have a lot less time to get all the "important" things (like golf?) done; somehow the 168 hours per week of our parents and grandparents has shrunk. (Although, admittedly, some - most? - of that is self-inflicted.)
Finally, most of our comfortable lives comes courtesy of very complex systems that most of us have no clue even exist – nor would we understand if we did know. (Not to mention most are also very fragile - remember toilet paper and hand sanitizer issues 5 yrs ago?)
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| Whoa, all I wanted was to turn on the lights and charge my phone! |
In a very condensed explanation, Prof. Tainter theorizes that successful cities and societies must continuously grow; there is no such thing as stasis, it's grow or die. As they grow, however, they continuously become more complex and in turn generating more complex problems which they then solve with more complex and expensive solutions. For example, think of our cities with their streets, sewers, water, heat, cooling, banks - government? We have come a long way from hunter-gatherer!
Finally, the problems generated by their evermore complex society literally become too difficult and/or expensive for people solve. According to him these problems are often caused or made worse: ". . . because of war, disease, climate change, cost or political/poor leadership" (this sound familiar?) and he offers many examples throughout history.
Big Finish!
Certainly everyone has heard a version of philosopher George Santayana's famous quote, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Meaning, I guess, that we humans apparently aren't capable of recognizing that we are, in fact, repeating the same stupid mistakes over and over. Thus, not unlike Sisyphus' rock, societies inevitably seem to roll back to chaos in that never-ending cycle.
(As a book recommendation, for another way to understand why we keep doing the same dumb ass stuff over and over check out The Fourth Turning by Strauss and Howe.)
In our case, I think everyone knows we've got a lot of complex issues that we need to fix in this country. You can see them everyday in the paper and on the news. (Much more on this in Pt II.)
(Of course, people leaving our state, and our current and growing federal debt and deficit, implies that however much we may want or need to fix things, many of us don’t wish to pay for them.)
You are a smart person so I'm sure you recognize that all these theories - and many of the same issues - can apply not only to the US but to most modern, western nations. In fact, possibly all western civilization. Inconceivable? Not in the long reach of history. (Fate is a bitch.)
For what it's worth, and to close Part I, here's something my late great friend DK said many years ago:
"We are not a serious people."
I think it is safe to say that we Americans with our undeniable retreat from common sense and critical thinking are proving he was very prescient.
And that cannot possibly be a helpful sign for poor old Sisyphus.
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| Perhaps DK was right? (BTW a hilarious - and frightening - movie) |
"How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said, “Gradually and then suddenly.”
"The Sun Also Rises" Ernest Hemingway
. . . The same with empires?
Part 2, "American Tectonics" will be out soon - try to contain your excitement until then.
Some empire-building music (please check it out, I spend a lot of time getting the perfect music for each post)
